I hate being right

Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 last night. This is one of those times where I actually hate being right. I did not see the whole AIG thing coming. Their pending collapse is something out of left field. Honestly I did not even know what AIG did until this week. 

It seems that no investment is safe these days. It appears that cash is king at the moment. Even the king cannot hold up to inflation. Cash will tend to lose money over the long run. It is actually the riskiest investment you can make. It is 100% guaranteed to not make any interest or lose value given enough time. In all honesty I am not totally convinced there is a long run as far as an economy goes.

I was walking down the sunny streets of San Francisco near Golden Gate Park on Sunday. By nature I am a people watcher. I notice people. I watch people. I feel like an observer out of time and place. People watching coupled with behavioral studies is one of my favorite games.

Normally I would say that the hordes of people that I encountered in and around the park are a good thing for the economy. Restaurants were packed with tourists. Parking was a premium. Sunlight was in abundance. It seemed that a good time was had by all. Excluding the financial nuclear meltdown thousands of miles away I would say it was a picture perfect day.

What bothered me about this Sunday was the fact that I had a pretty good idea that the collapse of Lehman Brothers was just a matter of a few hours away.  Most people on the streets seemed untroubled by the news if they heard it at all. The entire day felt like it was September 1929.

Civilization is on the edge of a financial abyss caused by a few people that decided to tie their greed into the foundation of our culture. The everyday person is a slave to the balance sheets of others. I am still betting on food, guns, and ammo for the long term. Cash may be king but the ace up my sleeve is a boom stick. 

David